19.04.2020

Hello, Guys,

Gold – it achieved $1747.81, but failed to move further, because of better sentiment in global equity markets mostly due to Trump’s plan of reopening of economy. Weekly graphs don’t look very optimistic and I expect $1660- $1640 levels before the reversal.

S&P, FTSE100, DAX – We saw first consecutive weekly gains since February. Indexes continued to recover after February-March meltdown. The dueling sentiments have helped the S&P 500 nearly halve its loss since falling from its record high in mid-February. Stocks were down by nearly 34% in late March, but a recent rally has trimmed the loss to roughly 17%. DAX halved its loss and it is in the middle of free fall started in mid. February. The next 1-2 weeks will be crucial to prove whether we really passed a bottom, or it was just a bounce.

WTI, Brent – I always considered oil as the most unpredictable instrument, so, it’s very difficult to forecast any direction, but I think downtrend will continue in the near future.

US Stocks – The initial panic is over and we see beneficiaries and most hit sectors by COVID-19, I believe we’ll see the same picture in the weeks to come. Amazon, Dollar General and Walmart all closed at record highs on Friday as people stock up on staples. Netflix also reached an all-time high as people spend more time than ever at home, while health care stocks also look attractive. Airlines, travel, financials,energy companies and owners of shopping malls, real estate will remain weak.

Good luck and stay healthy.

 

Best regards,

Al

12.04.2020

Hi Guys,

This is the first text for a weekly Bulletin. Just a few ideas. First, I expect gold to break through $1700 and further up to $1800 till the end of April, beginning of May. Second, I expect W shaped not V shaped reversal, i.e. the recent bounce I believe will not last long. Finally, oil as usually is totally unpredictable, so it’s hardly makes sense to play with it at all unless we see a firm and clear new trend.

Good luck and stay healthy.

Best regards,

Al