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Insider trading is an emerging risk in the new world of prediction markets, and some companies – including Goldman Sachs – are taking steps to limit employees’ trades on the platforms. Goldman Sachs has banned its employees from trading on contracts related to events that are specific to the bank, as well as elections, financial markets, macroeconomic data and geopolitics, according to people familiar with the matter. A representative for Goldman declined to comment on …

With the U.S. and Iran exchanging strikes once again — and the status of when normal traffic flows in the Strait of Hormuz  will return in doubt — traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think gas prices will likely still be elevated for longer now. Speculators think there’s a 75% chance that gas prices on election day, Nov. 3, will be above $3.50 per gallon, and place 39% odds that prices will be above $3.75. …

Goldman Sachs said Thursday it won deals to manage a combined $70 billion in retirement assets for Verizon Communications and Lockheed Martin, one of the larger recent announcements in the fast-growing market for outsourced corporate investing. The mandates include about $30 billion in pension assets for Verizon and Lockheed Martin and $40 billion in Verizon defined-contribution retirement assets, which are typically 401(k)s, according to Goldman. The moves underscore how some of America’s largest employers are …

BEIJING — China on Wednesday warned of “back-door” security risks affecting companies that use U.S.-based company Anthropic’s Claude Code artificial intelligence tool. It comes as the U.S.-China tech race intensifies, with Anthropic last month blaming Chinese company Alibaba for attempting to extract its AI capabilities, which are not officially available in China. Alibaba did not comment on the accusations at the time. Many locals in China have found ways to use U.S. AI tools, however. …

Michael Burry of “The Big Short” fame said he bought shares of regulated sports-betting operators DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment, anticipating regulators will eventually crack down on prediction markets after competition from the upstarts pressured the stocks. Burry said Wednesday he purchased a full-sized position split roughly 60% in Flutter and 40% in DraftKings, buying Flutter at about $107 a share and DraftKings in the low-$26 range. He said he could eventually increase each holding into …

Federal Reserve officials were split last month about the future of interest rates, with policymakers entertaining scenarios in either direction, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday. In Kevin Warsh‘s first meeting June 16-17 as chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, participants saw outcomes where inflation could ease and allow lower rates, while others envisioned a scenario where price increases stay elevated and lead to hikes. During his post-meeting news conference, Warsh billed the debate …

President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran is “over” after the U.S. conducted strikes against the Islamic Republic following attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.  Now, traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi are recalibrating their outlook for when they see traffic in the passageway returning to normal. Speculators now see just a 43% chance that traffic flows will return to normal by Dec. 1. The earliest they forecast normal traffic …

Divided Federal Reserve officials indicated at their last meeting that they will address persistent inflation this year with one interest rate hike. History, though, suggests that policymakers will have a hard time stopping there. In fact, there have been few instances over the past 35 years or so when the Fed has only made one rate move, be it up or down. Rather, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee tends to move in rate …

The Nasdaq-100 is up about 18% in 2026, but traders on prediction market platform Kalshi don’t think the index will move much higher in the second half of 2026.  Speculators place about 50-50 odds that the tech-heavy index will close 2026 above 30,000, a level it first crossed in late May. As of midday trading Tuesday, the index was also only about 1% below 30,000.  On Kalshi, the contracts asks speculators to place “yes” or …

Jefferies recommends owning quality, low-stress stocks to ride out the summer as markets become more volatile amid increased concerns tied to investment in artificial intelligence. AI-related questions range from potential overcapacity, the profits that will result from hyperscalers investing an estimated $700 billion in capital spending and rising costs for tokens, the fees paid to AI models, according to a note from Desh Peramunetilleke, head of quantitative strategy at Jefferies.  As evidence of the popularity …